Risk-off

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 27 Aug 2018 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

The past few months have proved challenging for the Philippines amidst risk-off global market conditions and a string of surprises that have led to the current mood of heightened caution. Despite robust domestic demand, economic growth slowed sharply, dragged down by net exports. Capacity constraints, seen in overstretched infrastructure, as well as increasingly cramped macro policy space, both monetary and fiscal, are expected to translate into economic growth rates falling below 6.5% over the forecast horizon. Moreover, downside risks dominate especially from external sources, including global trade tensions, tighter monetary and financial conditions and geopolitical risks. Notwithstanding the continuing noise, charter change in the short-term is remote, in our view.

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