Robust GDP growth in 2022

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Feb 2023 by Alexander Kudrin

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 3.2% in 2022 and, in nominal terms, reached KZT101.5 trln ($220.5 bn). Production of goods increased by 3.2% as the manufacturing segment of the industry grew by 3.2%, while mining contracted by 1.0%. The services sector (broad definition) grew by 2.6%. Construction and agriculture delivered 9.4% and 9.1% growth and were the fastest last year. The financial segment and operations with real estate grew by a mere 2.0% and 1.1%. Scientific research and related professional activities contracted by 6.3%. As inflation in the country was high last year, and the oil price was higher than in 2021, the GDP deflator was also high (17.2%). Overall, the result appeared in line with our expectations, and in the forthcoming report, we’ll provide more color, including some estimates of the quarterly GDP dynamics. So far, it appears that in 4Q22 GDP, growth accelerated, as GDP grew by 3.0% in 9M22. The forthcoming report will include some comments on January 2023 statistics which the BNS published today. The Bureau announced that the short-term indicator (which incorporates economic activity in industry, agriculture, transportation, construction, and trade) grew by 5.0% y-o-y last month, which was also in line with expectations. January statistics hint that Kazakh economic growth should accelerate this year. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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