​Rumors of Kurds ceding Afrin to Assad creates new scenarios for Turkey

TURKEY - In Brief 19 Feb 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkey’s Syria adventure is one of the most complicated stories ever to be told by Yours Truly, wherein the subtext changes daily. I write this note in the hourly hours of Tuesday, 20th of February, when several reports suggest Syrian Kurds (PYD-YPG, allied with PKK) and President Assad had reached a deal to cede control of Afrin canton to the latter. Ankara is skeptical, while expert commentary is confused. Nevertheless, such a move by PYD-YPG will lead to new risks and potentially to a domino effect across northern Syria, which may be to the advantage or disadvantage of Turkey. I wanted to send a heads-up in case rumors turn out be true. It is no secret that Assad and PYD-YPG have been in contact regarding control of Afrin, since Ankara made public its threats to invade the tiny Kurdish inhabited district, while Russia has always advocated declaring it a “deconfliction zone”, but leaving the modus operandi (i.e. who controls which part) in air. The best I can summarize the status of negotiations between PYD-YPG and Assad is that the former wishes pro-Assad forces to move up to the border regions to check Turkish advances, while the latter wants full control of the district, including the capital city of Afrin, as well as complete withdrawal of all military assets out of the region. It is not clear to me how these talks will culminate, because it appears there are factions within PYD-YPG which still wish to defend Afrin. Ankara’s official position is that Assad is welcome to take control of Afrin, as long as assurances are provided of full withdrawal of PYD-YPG forces out of the district. If Assad’s military is coming in to help PYD-YPG, Turkish Forces will fight them...