Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 20 Aug 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
The FX market’s reaction to the 14% surge in oil prices over the past two weeks, driven by renewed tensions between Iran and the US, was far from straightforward. The ruble fell about 5% during this time, likely due to increased capital outflows, including the non-repatriation of export earnings (the government scrapped mandatory FX sales a year ago). Additionally, reports suggest Russia has started importing gasoline, which may have boosted FX demand from importers. In the coming weeks, USD/RUB is expected to find temporary balance in the 84–87 range. Despite higher FX demand, the money market remains steady, with RUONIA trading below the key rate.Recent geopolitical tensions have weighed heavily on both equity and fixed-income markets. The 10Y OFZ has climbed past 16% once again. Even with growing market expectations for the CBR to cut key rates further, Minfin struggled to attract solid demand to resume primary placements of fixed-rate government bonds. This pause may last until mid-September, though floaters could be issued sooner since banks seem willing to buy them, albeit with the premium still uncertain. Overall, we expect continued market volatility, with a greater likelihood of lower rates ahead. The week ending August 17 showed slight deflation, with consumer prices dipping 0.02% w-o-w. MTD deflation hit 0.08%, while YTD inflation fell to 4.67%. August 2025 also saw deflation, with prices down 0.4% m-o-m and YTD inflation at 3.94%. Although inflation this year is higher than last year, it’s easing on a m-o-m basis, keeping the door open for a possible CBR rate cut.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Must have at least 8 characters
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2026 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.