Russia and China: Any possible conflicts of interest?

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 17 Feb 2023 by Alex Teddy and Alexei Panin

The rising tension between the western powers and the illiberal regimes of Russia, China and Iran, brought to new heights by the war in Ukraine, among other events, requires deeper analysis of the relationships between these powers. The growing relationship between Russia and China in particular has been under deep scrutiny. The two powers have had a historically contentious relationship at best, with even their relatively brief periods of rapprochement marked by seemingly deep mutual distrust. However, the current era has seen extraordinary statements by both parties, talking about a “No Limits” partnership, engaging in deep military, political and economic cooperation.

As such, examples of possible limits to this cooperation have been seized upon enthusiastically by the press in the West, and other places, such as India. While some of this has been no more than fantasy, such as rumors of a Chinese seizure of Primorye or even Siberia as a whole, it is true that these two ambitious great powers with separate spheres of influence definitely have the potential to come into conflict. There is no chance of another "Zhenbao Island" incident any time soon, but there are three areas where Russia and China's interests overlap: Central Asia, Ukraine and Syria.

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