Russia and the West: Recent developments seal the split; economy to adjust

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 23 Sep 2020 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

The Russian ruble remained under pressure for some time, aggravated recently by fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's regaining momentum (both in Russia and Western Europe) and potential new sanctions against Russia. It looks as though sanctions are mounting on Russia permanently, so the pressure on the ruble is very unlikely to subside.

The best the Russian authorities can do is to minimize the damage, which in the current situation could mean reducing interactions with the Western governments to the extent that can be considered diplomatically acceptable, and which is somehow is already naturally happening. As Russia will continue to behave as before, i.e., considered what is best for itself, a kind of further “diplomatic distancing” will also inevitably mean reduced trade relations with the Western countries. The economy will have to adjust to the changing environment.

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