Russia attacks Ukrainian naval ships: President calls for martial law

UKRAINE - In Brief 26 Nov 2018 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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Military scenario that we considered in our September report (“IMF arrives, as election prospects turn murky”, 11 Sep 2018) started unfolding in quite unexpected manner. Media reported that Russians attacked Ukrainian naval ships in the Sea of Azov (reportedly three naval vessels have been captured by Russians). Immediately National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine unanimously supported the proposal of the President Poroshenko to enact martial law for 60 days. Today at 16:00 Kyiv time Ukrainian parliament will have to approve this decision. Political opponents of President Poroshenko promptly blamed him in staging this conflict for the sake of disrupting president elections (scheduled for March 2019). I will drop here conspiracy behind this incident in the Sea of Azov. In my opinion playing with such things is very dangerous for both sides. But Poroshenko definitely was happy to use this opportunity for his political play. News about war with Russia takes the headlines immediately if something happens. Escalation in the east will wipe out all discussions about gas prices and other traditional pre-election stuff. Let alone opportunities which martial law creates if enacted: forbidden elections, restricted human rights (like right for political protests), and concentration of power by military elites. We have never been in these waters. I would not dare to predict how the scenario might unfold further on. But I would assume that Poroshenko would not spoil his reputation of pro-western politician by cancelation of presidential elections in March 2019. Instead he might use martial law to become top newsmaker for the pre-election months which undermines chances of hi...