Russia political/pandemic update: the changing quarantine regime
Ever since the Russian president launched a special mission in Ukraine, Russia became quite quickly disconnected from many countries. Meanwhile, Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate fell sharply from around 200K in mid-February to around 20K by the end of March. Given that Russia was almost completely cut from air travel and stopped importing as many viruses as in the past, it now looks as though this rapid decline in the COVID incidence rate was the side effect of the mission in Ukraine. Generally, the pandemic stopped being an important issue for Russia as the military operation overshadowed all other events. The country smoothly switched from the pandemic-imputed isolation to a geopolitical quarantine.
Generally, the absolute majority of Russians support the military activity in Ukraine, as the number of those who think that the country is moving in the right direction has grown sharply in the past several weeks. The approval rating of the Russian president soared, as did the perception of other government institutions, such as the Prime Minister, regional governors, the government itself and even the State Duma.
As Russia’s military mission is not yet accomplished and it remains unclear what outcome can be expected as negotiations with Ukraine continue to move on slowly, Russia-related risks appear elevated and no easing can be seen so far. Moreover, the Russian risks can only increase – at least as they are seen now.
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