Russia political/pandemic update: Epidemiological situation stabilizes, politics gets more intriguing

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 05 Feb 2021 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

In the aftermath of the New Year holiday period, the country’s daily registered cases of newly infected people fell from around 27K (where they were at the very end of 2020) to 16-17K as of early February. Even though the authorities did not tighten restrictions, it looks as though Russians mostly stayed home in early January. Hence the decline in new cases. On top of that, the vaccinations, which started in December and then slowly but steadily progressed in January, may have had some impact. The country’s epidemiological situation has somehow improved in recent weeks. Therefore, no tightening of the virus-related restrictions can be expected shortly unless the epidemiological situation suddenly deteriorates.

Overall, public opinion changed insignificantly in recent weeks, amid a combination of those health improvements, Mr. Navalny’s to return to the country, his arrest, protests in various regions and a tough response to these protests from the power structures. The tough response against the protesters may encourage more people to support the opposition of all kinds, and not the ruling party. The forthcoming Duma elections in September may be more intriguing than previously.

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