Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023
As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a constant with a positive sign, then each victim (or their relatives) can enjoy diminishing compassion from political leaders. Hence the conflict in Ukraine will continue in 2023 and, most likely, beyond. Moreover, it can only escalate in 2023 as each side (be it Russia or the West) demonstrates no intention to find a compromise. Thoughts about some compromise may start emerging only when human and economic costs exceed certain levels and start threatening the well-being of the ruling elites broadly. Therefore, the conflict can not only escalate, but it also has to become more deadly and costly as there is no common ground yet for any negotiations. Russian society seems to have adapted to a new geopolitical reality and can tolerate the current economic difficulties. The latter appear relatively moderate as the economic contraction in 2022 was not as deep as was initially expected.
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