Russia’s 1Q21 GDP looks better than was reported earlier

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 15 Jun 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that the 1Q21 GDP was down by 0.7% y-o-y, which is better than the initially reported 1.0% contraction. Mining was down by 7.4%, manufacturing was up by 0.6%. Trade (wholesale and retail) combine with auto repairs was up by 0.7%. The financial sector kept growing fast and was up by 6.7%. The hotels and restaurants segment was down by 7.5%. All these numbers are y-o-y. Seasonally adjusted 1Q21 GDP was almost flat Q-o-Q (to be more precise, it was down by 0.01% according to Rosstat’s calculations). Such a revision was generally expected by GKEM Analytica and didn’t challenge the recent 2021 GDP forecast (+3.8%) published earlier in June. Another upward revision of the 1Q21 cannot be ruled out at some point.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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