Russia’s 2020 GDP is revised up

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 02 Apr 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat announced that according to its second estimate, Russia’s GDP contracted by 3.0% instead of 3.1% reported previously. The result is not unexpected as earlier upward revisions of the 2018 and 2019 growth should have affected the 2020 data. At the same time, Rosstat finally released quarterly GDP accounts that now match the revised annual figures. Meanwhile, in 4Q20, GDP contracted by a mere 1.8%.Nominal accounts have been also revised up. Since the pandemic hit Russia and had a strong impact on the structure of the economy, it is understandable that statisticians couldn’t capture and incorporate in the national accounts these changes timely. Therefore, since mid-2020, Rosstat kept (and keeps) revising up previously published monthly indicators, which is another reason for an upward revision of the 2020 statistics.The same effects are likely to persist in 2021, and economic growth eventually may look better than it can anticipate now based on available statistics. Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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