Russia’s current account to strengthen in 2021

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 20 May 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
The Central bank estimated that Russia’s current account widened to $28.1bn in 4m21 as an estimate of the 1Q21 balance of payments published earlier suggested that the current account surplus was at $16.8bn. If so, then the current account was particularly strong in April. Meanwhile, according to the Finance ministry, the average price of Urals in 4M21 reached $60.47bbl (versus $41.04/bbl in 1Q20). In 4M20 the current account surplus was a similar $28.1bn as in 4M21, while the trade surplus was wider a year ago ($40.5bn versus $35.8bn in 4M21). The conclusion is that this year import grows fast as demand for services is still limited due to the pandemic constraints while consumer lending in early 2021 expanded very rapidly. As the oil price is likely to stay well above earlier expectations, Russia’s total exports may exceed $400bn and be close to 2019 level (when they reached $420bn), i.e. be strongly up from $332bn in 2020. Meanwhile, the average oil price was around $64/bbl in 2019. Amid a recovery of the domestic consumption, imports will keep growing fast y-o-y basis but the trade and the current account surpluses will remain strong. At a glance, the current account surplus may widen to 4.5-5.0% of GDP in 2021. In the forthcoming update of the macroeconomic forecast, GKEM Analytica will provide more color on these issues.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.