Russia's economic situation in November remains stable

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 21 Dec 2020 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that trends in the key sectors, such as retail sales, construction, transport, industry, agriculture remained relatively unchanged in November. GKEM Analytica mentioned earlier that industrial output was catching up with pre-pandemic levels, and in 11M20, it was down by a mere 3.0%. Even though agricultural production was down by 2.1% in November (due to earlier harvesting season this year), it was up by 1.5% y-o-y in 11M20. The growth figure is going to stay close to this level for the year as a whole. Construction was flat y-o-y in November and almost flat in 11M20 (down by 0.3% y-o-y). Freight transportation output was down by 2.2% and 5.4% y-o-y in November and 11M20, i.e., catching up quite fast.On the consumer side, real retail sales were affected by recently accelerated inflation. The retail trade contracted by 3.1% and 4.1% in November and 11M20. However, these numbers also point to recovery from a deep contraction that occurred in 2Q20. Meanwhile, the non-food retail sales were down by a mere 1.3% in November and by 5.5% in 11M20, while in 9M20 y-o-y contraction was deeper (6.7% y-o-y).Note that in recent months in most of these sectors, data published previously were regularly revised up. November statistics may be subject to revisions as well. Overall, these numbers are generally in line with GKEM Analytica’s earlier expectations, including expectations of regular upward revisions of statistical data.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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