Russia’s industrial growth gathers pace in April

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 25 May 2021 by Alexander Kudrin

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Rosstat reported that industrial output rose y-o-y by 7.2% in April and by 1.1% in 4M21. Mining was still down by 1.8% and 5.7% y-o-y in April and 4M21. Similar numbers for manufacturing looked more impressive – 14.2% and 4.5%. In May and June, y-o-y growth will become double-digit in the mining segment. Growth will remain in double digits in manufacturing as well due to low base effects. Overall, at a glance, industrial production may deliver growth well above 5% this year. Excluding some segments (such as oil extraction), the Russian industry grew almost across the board - both in April and 4M21. Car production, for instance, was up y-o-y by a factor of 4.4 in April and by 41.9% in 4M21. Machinery production overall demonstrated a strong growth also. A rebound in the production of various construction materials deserves special attention, as it is likely to point to the fact that construction activity may start picking up later this year. Cement production, for instance, was up by 20.5% and 0.4% y-o-y in April and 4M21. Production of ready-to-pour concrete grew by 27.1% and 11.0% y-o-y compared to April 2020 and 4M20.Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted m-o-m industrial growth was reportedly flat in April, but it happened on the back of considerable upward revisions of industrial statistics for March. One cannot rule out that similar revisions that became Rosstat’s regular practices since 2Q20 will, later on, occur in the case of April data as well.Continuously improving performance in the industry well corresponds to a steady tax collection from the non-oil-and-gas part of the economy reported by Minfin.Rosstat will publish a broader range of monthly statistics for April ...