Russia’s pandemic/political update: hoping for a slightly better life in 2021

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 06 Jan 2021 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

Unsurprisingly, the coronavirus, the respective restrictions and the measures undertaken by the authorities were perceived as the most important developments in 2020. After reaching a peak on December 24 (nearly 30K infected) Russia’s number of daily Covid-19 cases has started to subside gradually. In recent days the number of newly infected has fluctuated around 24K. As the meaning of the absolute numbers linking the coronavirus with the country’s increased mortality rate can be interpreted in different ways, it makes more sense to pay attention to the daily rates of growth either of the lethal cases or daily registered cases – at least the systemic measurement error could be eliminated. Currently it looks as though new restrictions are unlikely in Russia, while the previously imposed ones are likely to remain in place for a while.

Russians generally appreciate the activities of their president, but remain divided as to whether the country is muddling through in the right direction. Such a situation has remained generally unchanged for twenty years, but nothing can guarantee it will stay the same in the years to come. It cannot be ruled out that the overall perception of Russian reality will be eventually dominated by the younger generation and by those middle-age professionals whose most active years passed during the “weak decade” of 2011-2020. Getting older but receiving limited material rewards for loyalty, the latter group of people may leave the camp of supporters of the current system and join those who would like to see some change.

The social and political system is unlikely to change much in 2021, even though the economic situation will somehow improve. Opinion polls suggested that 67% of Russians think that 2021 will be either definitely or hopefully better than 2020 – the highest ever level since 2010. The domestic social and political situation may become more intriguing closer to the next presidential election in 2024.

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