Russia’s political/pandemic update: sticks and carrots
The stubborn lack of desire to get vaccinated and abide by safety protocols shown until recently by the absolute majority of Russians caused the daily incidence rate to jump from below 10K to over 20K within a couple of weeks in the second half of June. The preliminary reports of Russia’s daily death toll from the virus, which are usually revised up over time, have recently increased to historical highs (consistently over 600 people). It is much higher than in many countries where more people were vaccinated.
Amid these unpleasant developments, the Russian authorities had nothing to do but to tighten restrictions. As gently encouraging people to get vaccinated had little effect, the authorities issued regulations that prohibit unvaccinated people of various professions from going to work, effectively making employers responsible for enforcement. These measures might negatively affect Russia’s services sector, but the potentially unpleasant effect on the country’s GDP growth may not be significant. The good news is that the demand for vaccinations has jumped in recent weeks. The daily number of injections increased on an average weekly basis by a factor of two across the country and exceeded 500K, which is still too little; to gradually catch up with other countries, Russia probably needs at least around 1.5 mln jabs a day. As of June 29, just slightly above 15% of the country’s population had gotten at least one dose of the vaccine. Even though the Russian society as a whole generally admires a kind of order and discipline, the order should be “stick-imposed” as it does not naturally originate from the society itself, which lacks a tradition of self-discipline.
Opinion polls show that society remains generally divided concerning relations with the Western countries and, so far, Russia’s ruling elite enjoys sufficient popular support. As the West is neither disliked nor admired by the society as a whole, there is no need for the Russian ruling elite to make efforts either to improve relations with the West or intentionally damage them. Domestic support is more important than shaking hands with Western leaders. In some sense, this situation looks similar to the divided EU, where over one-third of its members were strongly against any summits with Russia. Hence maintaining the status quo, i.e., making little effort to change relations during the pandemic of mistrust, looks like the only reasonable outcome suitable for both sides. Betting on any improvements in relations between Russia and the West is groundless as Russians need no “carrots” and ignore “sticks” from “potential partners.”
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