​Russian industrial growth seemingly losing steam

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 26 Aug 2021 by Alexander Kudrin

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Rosstat reported that the industrial output was up by 4.4% y-o-y in 7M21, while the same 4.4% y-o-y growth was reported for 1H21 a month ago. In July alone, the industrial output was up by 6.8% y-o-y, while in May and June, this growth was double-digit. Strong base effects affected y-o-y statistics, but not only. As was mentioned previously in various notes of this series, Rosstat permanently revised some data published in previous months. Yesterday, however, the statistical service updated monthly industrial statistics for the entire 2020. It was a clear upward revision. Earlier it was reported that in 2020 industry as a whole contracted by 2.6%. The new figure is a mere 2.1% contraction. Previously, mining reportedly decreased by 6.9% in 2020, while the revised figure is 6.6%. The 2020 growth in manufacturing, which was 0.6%, was revised up to 1.4%. Monthly and quarterly 2020 statistics were also revised, and the revisions strongly affected the previously published 2021 statistics. Meanwhile, one cannot rule out that the 2020 GDP conduction will appear less significant than the current 3.0% figure suggests – national accounts are likely to be adjusted at a later stage.All in all, it now looks as if the 2021 industrial growth is more moderate, but this moderation solely results from the upward revision of the base, i.e., the 2020 statistics. The currently available 2021 industrial statistics are likely to be revised up in the future also. Therefore, a kind of moderation of industrial growth reported by Rosstat yesterday may appear an apparent effect.The most recent data suggest that in 1H21 industrial output was up by 4.0% y-o-y (as opposed to the 4.4% before the revi...