Revised 2023-2024 macro data show steady growth, but things could change this year
According to Rosstat’s flash estimate, the country’s GDP grew by 4.1% and reached R200,039.5 bln, implying it climbed to $2,155 bln in dollar terms. Both the nominal figure and the growth rate appeared slightly higher than we anticipated—not least due to revisions of the historical data. We expected nominal GDP to be close but still below R200 trln in 2024. Rosstat revised Russia’s 2023 GDP growth to the same 4.1% (from the previous 3.6%), and the nominal GDP figure now stands at R176.4 tln (R172.2 trln previously). The 2022 numbers were also revised. Quarterly GDP data remain unrevised, and so far, only data for the first three quarters of 2024 are available, but these numbers will be revised and published along with the 4Q24 statistics.
After a period of growth volatility, the 2023-2024 annual numbers look more stable, and the question is whether the Russian economy has found its new, more sustainable growth trajectory or if it will return to much slower or even negative growth rates. At a glance, we think it is too early to say whether the recently seen GDP growth rates are sustainable as the economy is still in a kind of structural transformation, searching for a less volatile growth trajectory. Coming up with a short- to-medium-term GDP outlook without consistent quarterly national accounts is always challenging. Nonetheless, we plan to deliver the updated macroeconomic outlook in about two weeks, i.e., after the January 2025 figures appear. We had planned to provide an updated 2025 outlook earlier, but the recent significant revisions of the historical time series complicated the task.
There are many more peculiarities in the Russian economy to digest, and it will take some time as statistics lag behind. For instance, the recent ruble appreciation back to about USD/RUB 91 as of this writing, from over USD/RUB 100, deserves some additional consideration as it occurred in the aftermath of a negative current account in December 2024 and January 2025 (a rare case for Russia to register in two consecutive months). Does this appreciation reflect market hopes that some sanctions may be lifted? Or does it mean that previously delayed repatriation of export earnings finally reached home base? We also cannot rule out that the growing use of national currencies in Russia’s trade with other countries has fundamentally affected the structure of the FX market and the demand for “unfriendly currencies”, or that new trends have emerged in recent months (an issue that requires additional data, time and consideration).
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