Russian pandemic/political update: Looking forward to Duma elections amid a lasting pandemic
Russia’s daily COVID-19 incidence rate increased in July following its steady growth in June but has seemingly stabilized in the second half of last month. It rose from around 20K to 25K in the first ten days of July, fluctuated around this level in the next ten days and hovered between 22K and 24K in the last ten days. These levels are comparable with those seen in much less populated countries, such as France or the UK. However, Russia’s daily reported death toll, a kind of flash estimate to be adjusted later after additional checks, remained stable and high – slightly below 800 people. The death toll is high due to slow vaccination rates. As of August 2, only 17.5% of the total population had been fully vaccinated, and 25.2% had gotten at least one jab. Meanwhile, it is very clear from regional statistics that in regions where the vaccination level has increased, such as Moscow or the Moscow Oblast, the daily incidence rate has declined considerably.
It looks as though the rising incidence rate has had almost no effect on economic activity, as the restrictions imposed by regional authorities were rather moderate (if there were any at all). The authorities are more interested in allowing the Russian economy to roll on than enforcing restrictions, leaving it to people to decide for themselves whether to get infected or not. Given that the Duma elections are due on September 19, it is no surprise that securing some economic growth and income growth are, for the time being, major priorities for the government.
The forthcoming Duma elections are the highest short-term priority for the ruling elite. Recent opinion polls suggest that even though the ruling United Russia party has more supporters than any other party, the current level cannot be making the ruling elite happy. Securing a constitutional majority in the parliament has always been its target.
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