Election Monitor III: National elections – growing uncertainty amid a rising desire for change

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 29 Apr 2024 by Iraj Abedian

South Africa celebrated the 30th anniversary of the new dispensation on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The mood of the nation could hardly be more different than it was on April 27, 1994, when Nelson Mandela declared the triumph of the ANC’s decades of struggle against apartheid. The predominant majority was filled with joy and with admiration for the ANC and its leadership. Nowadays, in complete contrast, the ANC is found synonymous with corruption, ineptitude, and maladministration—largely seen by the poor, the youth and the unemployed as a failed political party. What in the past stood as a reminder that the ANC was a liberator, this year April 27 was an occasion for the party to defend itself and promise self-rehabilitation. All with little credibility.

Coincidentally, IPSOS, arguably the most credible source of opinion surveys, released its latest results projecting the relative level of support for the various parties. With the electioneering campaigns in full swing, palpable pressure is on the ANC. Since October 2023, the level of support for the party has declined steadily according to the survey, and is currently projected at 40.2%.

As highlighted in our Election Monitor II, published on April 12, 2024, the game changer has been the entry of the MK Party, led by ex-President Jacob Zuma. Despite its late arrival on the political scene, it has changed the projected outcome for both the ANC and the EFF. The party has assumed the remarkable position of 4th place in the overall ranking.

On its 30th anniversary, SA’s democratic order is once again at the crossroads of strategic political choices. Broadly, the above opinion survey results suggest that the ANC has two choices: one is to lead a coalition with the DA and move the governance of the country and its economic trajectory to a market-friendly and development-centric path. The other is to shift to a populist domain and form a coalition with the EFF, and the outcome will be largely more of the same poor governance, inefficiency and demagoguery, with little, if any, sustainable constructive outcome.

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