Same Old Same Old

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 15 Aug 2017 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

The President’s second State of the Nation Address (SONA) in July suggests that year 2 of the Duterte Administration will be much like year 1. Our central growth scenario of 6.5% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018 is unchanged from our last report, although we now expect greater contribution from exports that will help make up for slower growth in domestic demand. Public spending has picked up lately, a positive development, and domestic monetary conditions remain supportive of growth. Downside risks continue to dominate with perceptions of increased political risks and local policy unpredictability, global financial market volatility that follows from shifting sentiments regarding US monetary policy response to changing economic growth assessments, and geopolitical risks, most recently nuclear threats from North Korea.

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