SAUDI: Private-sector GDP down about -10% m/m in March

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 30 Jun 2020 by Justin Alexander

On June 30, Saudi Arabia was the first Gulf state to publish Q1 real GDP data (GAS). The headline figure is a -1.0% y/y contraction (-4.6% oil, +1.6% non-oil), compared with -0.3% y/y in Q4, or a seasonally adjusted contraction of -0.4% q/q. On the surface, this may seem like a much smaller impact from the COVID crisis than might have been expected. However, if you strip out the oil and government sectors, as well as the impact of the leap year, and compare with the trend growth rate, then the severe impact in March, when the COVID lockdown suddenly kicked in, is clearer to see.

Private-sector GDP is estimated to have contracted by -10% m/m in March. Construction, real estate and trade & hospitality were hit hardest. Government spending provided some offsetting stimulus. Q2 will be much worse, with a non-oil contraction of at least -6% y/y.

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