Scenarios for Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 Oct 2020 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

​The payment of R$ 600 in emergency aid to informal workers ends on December 31. Both the government and Congress are advocating for a program to replace it, and now there is immense pressure from the Ministry of the Economy to find sources of financing the new program. The importance of this matter for Bolsonaro is clear. With the approval of the Renda Cidadã and a recovering economy, albeit at a slower speed, Bolsonaro's popularity could be maintained or even increase. He would also consolidate the support of low-income voters, especially in the Northeast – the PT’s electoral stronghold – and considerably increase his chances of re-election.

However, less than 90 days remain until the Congressional recess, which formally begins on December 23, and the municipal elections are already compromising the pace of work in the legislature. The government is running out of time to find a source of funding for the program, and depending on these sources, approval of a proposed amendment to the Constitution (PEC) could be required.

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