​Second Post:Erdogan and AKP-MHP likely to win

TURKEY - In Brief 24 Jun 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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With 80-85% of the ballot counted, official media heralds a 4 point lead for Erdogan in the presidential race, while AKP-MHP has a daunting 55 seat majority in the Grand Assembly, as pro-Kurdish HDP scrapes by the 10% qualifying hurdle. The Fair Election website is still down, while the single opposition news source Halk TV is unable to provide alternative figures. On one hand, since TV coverage had started, both Erdogan and AKP-MHP steadily declined in the count. Additionally, in cities-districts where CHP should have a better showing such as Izmir, the vote count is substantially below the national average. I think the final tally will be much different than the ratios I reported above, and there is less than 50% chance that results, too, can change in favor of Ince and the opposition. However in the absence of any convincing alternative data from the opposition ranks, or reports of major fraud, I’m willing to concede the races to Erdogan and AKP-MHP.