Politics: The Sheinbaum Presidency—first positions and implications
There were no big surprises in Claudia Sheinbaum’s first day in office and her two inauguration day speeches. Everything points to a continuation of outgoing President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s social programs (a central axis of his and Morena’s so-called "Fourth Transformation"), ideology, and general policies, albeit with increased emphasis on women and gender equality, nearshoring and other economic measures such as industrial parks, and renewable energy.
Sheinbaum is wagering on economic growth, fueled in large part by private sector investment, as the decisive factor for the success of her model in the medium term. The issue of security, of major concern to the population, and the rule of law in serious risk with the recently approved Judicial Reform, were both downplayed.
There was considerable speculation in the press and among some critics that there would be a differentiation between Sheinbaum in office and AMLO’s policies. So far, this has not been observed. The results of the 4T’s policies, particularly in terms of poverty reduction, are considered to have been wildly successful; the Morena leadership and ranks feel the party has wind in its sails, given significant victories in June’s election, including automatic majorities in Congress, and both Sheinbaum's and AMLO’s approval ratings are very high. But in addition to security policy, health care policy has been a total failure, and the quality of the provision of other basic public functions has been worsening, including potable water provision, environmental protection, and critical infrastructure maintenance. It is worth noting that in a context of intense political polarization in Mexico, the speeches did not contain a call for dialogue and unity but instead were targeted to Morena followers.
Regarding the Judicial Reform, multiple analysts, Mexico’s two North American trade partners, and business circles allege there is a contradiction between inviting investment and this deep institutional change. It is considered that by weakening the judicial branch’s autonomy and independence they are undermining investor confidence and therefore negatively affecting the economic potential of the country.
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