Politics: Sheinbaum shackled by the long shadow of AMLO’s legacy
A complex yet muted political drama is playing out with less than two months to go before Claudia Sheinbaum becomes president. As with any incoming executive, her prospects for tackling the biggest and most pressing problems facing the country will depend on her ability to define her own agenda, build alliances and assemble her own governing team. Since the 1930s, a process has played out every six years, one in which the outgoing president’s power has gradually eroded as the designated successor built their own capacity and influence, knitting alliances with power groups and factors, bonds reflected in the composition of their cabinet. We may be witnessing the end of that tradition as President López Obrador has moved to dictate the terms of governance under which Sheinbaum must operate, her agenda and even her cabinet picks.
There have been subtle signs for some time that the virtual president-elect would like to adopt more solid and pragmatic policies in many areas, address problems that the outgoing administration has allowed to fester and build bridges to constituencies that AMLO has alienated, often gratuitously. In some crucial issues there are serious discrepancies between the effective policies the new government would pursue and the ideological obsessions of the current president. Examples include energy and security as Sheinbaum has abstained from announcing her picks to manage Pemex and CFE, while AMLO’s push to consolidate the militarization of security jeopardize the viability and effectiveness of the security policies that incoming Minister of Security Omar García Harfuch wishes to implement.
Some hold out hope that a differentiation between the two will occur after Sheinbaum takes office in October. However, that may be too late, as her predecessor’s suggestions and commitments will have greatly circumscribed the new public administration’s margins of maneuver. The coming weeks and months will determine to what extent Sheinbaum is capable or even willing to chart her own course or whether a diarchy will be consolidated in which AMLO will continue to act as the helmsman.
This week we analyze how this process is playing out and the immediate and longer term implications for most, if not all, policy areas and the direction of the country.
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