Show must go on

UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Feb 2016 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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It was a nice show with an attempt to dismiss the Cabinet. Now it would be difficult for western diplomats to blame the President that he did nothing for resolving political crisis. Poroshenko asked both Chief prosecutor and Prime-minister to resign and Chief prosecutor even complied with his request. But Prime-minister… well… you know… parliament did not vote for his dismissal. After this not very elegant maneuver Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk will anticipate that the pressure they experience will ease at least partially. Indeed, what can one do in this situation when early parliament elections are prohibited (western donors do not support re-elections at this stage) while re-shuffling of the Cabinet is not possible with current parliament. It sounds like a perfect excuse. Should this scenario been unfolding ten years ago, that would be the end of the story. But the situation has changed. Civil society is an active player and western diplomats heavily rely on opinion leaders when evaluating the stance. While civil activists are unanimous – it was a show to make observers believe that Poroshenko is good and he is trying to find a way out. What might come next? Apparently, there will be negotiations with the West. And there will be growing tension from inside. Cabinet as well as parliament will be hardly functional. While civil society most likely will become more aggressive. There will be ‘constructive talk with the IMF’ without any funding. Unless Poroshenko steps aside we will face effective paralysis of the country with inevitable early parliament elections at the end. Agsint this backdrop chances for happy-end become increasingly slim.