Simple Fidesz majority is the most likely outcome on Sunday

HUNGARY - In Brief 04 Apr 2018 by Istvan Racz

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Four days ahead of the parliamentary election, due on Sunday, a simple majority (between 50% and two-thirds of all mandates) won by the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance seems to be the most likely, and also the most widely expected, outcome. Most recently, Fidesz, formerly seen as an easy winner of a constitutional (two-thirds) majority, has lost a little support in the polls, and several pollster also said in unison that leftist-liberal parties are most likely to be slightly under-measured, due to an unknown number of hiding voters. Besides, one pollster (ZRI) said that there are some 900 thousand undecided voters (11% of the total voting population), who would be prepared to vote but have not found a proper party yet, even though some 60% of those have said they would like PM Orbán to be voted out of power. Forecasting what these people will eventually do on voting day is not easy, but all these circumstances will leave Fidesz with good chances for a convenient but only simple majority.Thus the most likely outcome, as pollsters and analysts see it, seems to be the same as the result widely considered as best for investors. Indeed, simple majority for Fidesz appears to be a kind of guarantee for stability. Well, quite far away from perfect stability, to be honest, but still much better than the two alternative cases. There is still some risk of a two-thirds win for Fidesz, which is widely considered as the worst possible outcome. The latter is because PM Orbán's government is coming increasingly under fire, due to its international conflicts and its treatment of civil rights, now combined with mounting corruption charges. Should Mr. Orbán get a chance to amend the const...