​Snap elections: Good for Turkey, good for Erdogan

TURKEY - In Brief 18 Apr 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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Erdogan-Bahceli meeting yielded snap elections, and I really mean “snap” elections, because the proposed date was brought forward from 26 August to 24 June. Early elections are good for Erdogan and Turkey, because both could have suffered a road accident, had they been delayed to 2019. My poll-of-polls indicate AKP-MHP will receive ca. 53% of national vote.It is difficult to coherently organize data on presidential elections, but in the absence of a strong, uniting figure opposing him Erdogan is likely to win. Despite the brief time left to poll date, “down side surprises” are aplenty, though. I think Erdogan and Bahceli brought forward the date for the following reasons: They want to hold the ballot under SoE laws.There is a controversy whether MHP’s nemesis İYİ Party (of Mrs. Aksener) is eligible to contest general elections prior to 1 September.I speculate that Erdogan wanted to delay rate hikes. Given the rising political uncertainty slowly paralyzing the economy, as manifested in consumer confidence surveys and recent polls, as well as the escalating likelihood of a nasty road accident in the economy in 2019 triggered by to the ultra-expansionary mind set of AKP, earlier elections are good for Turkey. They are also good for Erdogan and AKP-MHP, because I predicted for some time now that all three of them are in the midst of a secular decline in popularity terms, meaning that elections in 2019 could have led to a split ticket, or worse, an Erdogan-AKP/MHP victory by massive fraud. According to my poll-of-polls currently AKP and MHP garner 53% of the national vote, securing a working majority in the Grand Assembly. Data on presidential elections is more diffuse, but...