Social Unrest and Uncertainty Continues

ECUADOR - In Brief 07 Apr 2017 by Magdalena Barreiro

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We are still waiting for official GDP data and economic information for Q4 2016. This information should have been published by March 31st, and was not. Also, the fiscal web page from the Ministry of Finance is not active. Although we have given our estimates in past reports and we do not expect big changes, the above lack of information probably does not precede good news. We will be issuing our quarterly report in the week after Easter Sunday --hopefully with the expected information.In the meanwhile, we have to express our concern for the current social unrest that continues on the streets of the main cities in Ecuador. Guillermo Lasso is rejecting the results from the last elections of Sunday, April the second, and has presented a case of fraud that according to the law the National Electoral Council should examine. The President from this institution, says, however, that "nothing formal has been submitted" and that in this case he cannot take any action. The Council will announce formal official results on April the 29th, just a few days before the change of office at the Presidency of the Republic. Also CEDATOS one of the oldest and well respected pollsters who carried out the "fast counting" during the elections day and gave Lasso an advantage of around 5% over Moreno, was raided by special police forces today, and all documents and computers were seized. His president, Polibio Cordova, has not been detained yet, but in a recent press interview, he expressed his well founded fears.We do not expect things to change, and Lenin Moreno will no doubt assume office, but he will certainly face a bumpy start on all fronts.