Politics: Some of Mexico's important vulnerabilities vis-à-vis the Trump Administration

MEXICO - Report 02 Feb 2026 by Guillermo Valdés and Francisco González

Facing the review and possible renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026, Mexico has some shielding against extreme tariff measures due to its deep integration with North American value chains, but its negotiating capacity is severely undermined by a set of internal economic and structural vulnerabilities that limit the possible actions of the current and future governments. These cannot be resolved in the short term to coincide with the USMCA review, but identifying them is the first step in any medium- to long-term rebalancing strategy.

Among these vulnerabilities are an energy policy that openly violates USMCA commitments and has simultaneously increased dependence on natural gas imports from Texas, without significantly reducing dependence on imported gasoline. Other vulnerabilities include chronic backlogs in infrastructure critical for maintaining dynamic trade; regulatory institutions that have been eliminated or weakened; and customs and ports plagued by inefficiency and corruption.

The government of Claudia Sheinbaum has inherited these limitations, which reduce its margin for maneuver against U.S. pressure on trade, security, and migration.
In this week's Political Outlook, we analyze some of these vulnerabilities in the context of a review or possible renegotiation of the USMCA this year and in the face of a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy on multiple fronts.

Now read on...

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