Politics: Some scenarios of the presidential succession given recent developments

MEXICO - Report 22 May 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Morena’s presidential nominee is supposed to be chosen based on one or more public opinion polls to ascertain which one is most popular with voters, but it is commonly assumed President López Obrador will pick the candidate, reviving one of the hoariest traditions of single-party rule in twentieth century Mexico, known as el dedazo, literally "the pointing finger" or tapping the candidate, in which the sitting president hand picks his successor. At this point Claudia Sheinbaum appears to have the inside track, but the way the party structures the final nomination process could shake up the entire presidential contest.

The most pressing issue is whether Marcelo Ebrard will find acceptable the nomination process rules that are to be decided by early July, and possibly opt instead to accept the nomination of the Citizens’ Movement party. MC leader Dante Delgado has long been adamant the party has no intention of joining forces with the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition, insisting that all three parties are so thoroughly discredited that they would only drag the MC down along with them.

The Va por México coalition has done little to dispel such concerns since it has rejected the invitation of civil society groups to build a broader alliance by throwing their candidate nomination process to an open primary election that could legitimize the eventual nominee in the eyes of the citizenry, instead of being the product of backroom deals between the party leaders. Dante predicts the probable defeat of the coalition in next month’s elections in the State of Mexico will aggravate the weakness and internal conflicts among those parties, thereby making the election of 2024 the great opportunity for MC to emerge as the main opposition to Morena.

The big hole in that plan has been the absence of any credible candidate to head up their ticket. However, should Ebrard accept the nomination it could open a variety of scenarios in which that party could emerge as the main opposition force, leave it in a strong position in a Congress in which no party or coalition is likely to obtain a majority and make the party a major player in 2030.

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