South Africa’s economy escaped a technical recession in Q4-2023—but only just

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 06 Mar 2024 by Iraj Abedian

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy barely managed to grow in the final quarter of 2023 following a contraction of 0.2% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 0.1% q/q, largely a consequence of ongoing issues in both the electricity and logistics (rail and ports) sectors, while demand by households remains lackluster on the back of the elevated cost of living. Nonetheless, lower electricity shortages during the period relative to Q3-2023 aided the country’s economy in escaping a technical recession. Yet, aside from four quarterly contractions, Q4-2023 represents the lowest (positive) growth rate since the beginning of 2021.

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