South Africa’s GDP starts off another year with a contraction

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 05 Jun 2018 by Iraj Abedian

​Just as we had anticipated and communicated in our previous report, South Africa’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of 2018. The annualized percentage change in the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP came in at -2.2% in the first quarter, following 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Besides the economy’s shaky start in what is supposed to be its take-off year, perhaps also interesting is the trend in quarterly GDP contractions in the past few years. Graph 1 shows a contraction in South Africa’s quarterly GDP once every year since 2014, with all these contractions taking place in the first quarter (except in 2015 when it occurred in the second quarter). So far, however, there appears to be no discernible pattern in any sector where the seasonal performance could be attributed to this.

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