Special report: Moscow-Baku diplomatic row in perspective—destabilization of the South Caucasus?
- Russian police launched raids on the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia, citing its involvement in organized crime.
- Azerbaijan retaliated by arresting and beating Russian nationals and closing Russian media outlets.
- Aliyev maintains a stable equilibrium in his country's relations with both the West and Russia, which is unusual for an autocratic regime.
- We analyze Azerbaijan’s relations with its neighbors to understand why de-escalation is the most likely outcome in the short-term.
The fallout between Russia and Azerbaijan, culminating in a significant deterioration of relations, has been driven by a series of escalating incidents, from the deaths in custody of detained Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg to the subsequent raids in both Russia and Azerbaijan. These incidents serve as a critical flashpoint in the diplomatic crisis that has occurred over the last three weeks.
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