Politics: Splits and Quakes Reshape 2018
Margarita Zavala’s announcement October 6 that she was resigning from the PAN to run as an independent may have shaken up the 2018 campaign. As the PAN’s best known presidential hopeful, Zavala was drawing roughly the same support in polls as her main rival within the PAN, party chairman Ricardo Anaya, who appeared to have a lock on the presidential nomination of the Broad Citizens Front (PAN-PRD-MC). It is far too soon to conclude just how much of the vote Zavala might win next year in an uphill battle against the formidable campaign machines and deep pockets of the major parties, but she has already delivered a blow to the front and may yet stage a strong challenge of her own.
Most of her prominent backers in the PAN are now committed to waging a war from within the party against Anaya, whose bargaining position with other components of the front is now weakened by having failed to avert the split and the potential loss of voters it entails. Moreover, doubts about his personal finances threaten to greatly weaken what had been seen by some as the best ticket to dislodge the PRI from power next year.
One clear beneficiary of this turn of events is Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who by default remains the strongest challenger to the incumbent party at a time when as few as 15% of voters support the PRI remaining in power. But he has limited room to grow his support given his high negatives with much of the electorate.
Ironically, the PRI might emerge as the big winner from Zavala’s decision. One of the party’s potential nominees is current Finance Minister José Antonio Meade. A widely respected public servant who has held no fewer than five major cabinet posts, Meade also served in the PAN administration of Felipe Calderón. In a contest in which the front is seen a slipping into third place, many BCF and Zavala supporters might cast a tactical vote for a PRI slate led by Meade as the only way to stop López Obrador.
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