Stable TL, unhinged everything else

TURKEY - Report 23 Jan 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

First batch of polls from January reveal a few percentage points of increases for Erdogan and AKP (not MHP). Much has been made about these polls, reading into them a permanent rebound in the fortunes of the President and his party. We respectfully disagree.

The opposition is catching flak from its own ranks for complacency and lack of a common economic program. Does it really matter? Maybe, probably not.

We can’t judge whether Putin will order an invasion of Ukraine, but if he does Turkey will come under friendly fire.

The central government budget closed 2021 with some TL192 billion, or 2.7% of GDP deficit, broadly in line with our estimate, down from 3.5% of GDP in 2020, thanks to strong revenue performance.

Consumer confidence edged up a little in January, but the improvement is too insignificant to make much out of, and seems driven more by “hope” than “reality”.

Now read on...

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