Politics: Stage set for final showdowns over electoral arbiter and rules for the 2024 elections

MEXICO - Report 27 Feb 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

With showdowns looming in the extended fight over which rules and what sort of arbiter will preside over the 2024 elections, all sides are stepping up their efforts. Opposition parties, civil society organizations and others are increasingly allied in challenging many of the laws passed recently under AMLO’s administration. In addition to hundreds of legal challenges filed with the Supreme Court, with many more to come, they continue to stage periodic nationwide protests. Those initiatives have won the support of growing numbers of prominent individuals and organizations.

The Supreme Court has already begun agreeing to consider some of the suits challenging the controversial laws and will likely issue its rulings by late May as whatever electoral legal framework is in place on June 1 of this year will apply to the 2024 elections. President López Obrador is almost assuredly going to see his changes to election law declared unconstitutional, but by early April he may well manage to win a majority on the National Electoral Institute.

For the first time since electoral democracy was consolidated in Mexico in 1996 the country is gearing up for the largest electoral contest in its history, with the presidency, nine state governors, all 500 federal deputies, 128 federal senators, around 2,000 municipal presidents, numerous state lawmakers and other municipal officers on the ballot. It will also be the first presidential election year in which there is no broad consensus among all registered parties regarding the electoral rules, which the incumbent camp will likely denounce, or arbiter (INE), whose composition the opposition parties are likely to distrust—in short, a system shorn of legitimacy. This sets the stage for conflicts in federal, state and municipal races throughout the campaign and following the vote. And it not only raises the specter of instability, but also that new authorities, from the President of the Republic on down, will take office with a considerable deficit of legitimacy.

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