Politics: State of Mexico Contests Key for 2018

MEXICO - Report 09 Feb 2017 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

Voters will elect new governors in Coahuila, Nayarit and the State of Mexico and choose new municipal presidents in Veracruz in June. All four contests serve as early indicators of how electoral preferences are shaping up in relation to the three parties currently enjoying the strongest polling results for next year’s presidential elections: the PAN, the PRI and Morena.

The contest in the State of Mexico is the most significant in this regard because that state is the country’s most populous and historically wields considerable political weight. It has always been governed by the PRI, and a governorship there has long been a springboard for the presidency, most recently in the case of President Enrique Peña Nieto. A PRI defeat this year would leave no doubt as to the extent to which the incumbent party has seen its national support greatly eroded, even in its key stronghold.

But the traditional opposition in the state (the PAN and the PRD) has also seen its influence greatly eroded in recent years and just let the possibility of a very promising coalition slip through their hands. Although the PAN is still hoping to convince ex presidential candidate Josefina Vázquez to run, she appears reluctant, and the state PRD leadership appears committed to running a candidate with dismal prospects.

That leaves Morena nominee Delfina Gómez as the strongest challenger to PRI nominee Alfredo del Mazo, scion of a political dynasty who along with his cousin, President Enrique Peña Nieto, belongs to perhaps the most powerful power group in the country.

President Peña Nieto got the year off to a dismal start as his popularity plunged to 12%; support for his PRI and its top presidential hopefuls all saw their own polling numbers take a dive. That development could carry over to this year’s contest in the State of Mexico, and while the PRI nominee is currently ahead in the polls, his lead is not so great as to assume the PRI will remain the incumbent party after June. A Gómez victory would deal a major blow to the presidential prospects of the PRI and send a powerful message about the strength of Morena and three-time presidential candidate López Obrador ahead of the 2018 elections.

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