Still no improvement in China’s economic performance

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 20 Jul 2022 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this issue:

* GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 came in well below already-low expectations. GDP was up in real terms by just 0.4 percent relative to GDP in the second quarter of 2021, and it was down 2.6 percent relative to GDP in the first quarter of 2022.

* For me the more important story continues to be the sharp deterioration in the quality of growth. Nominal GDP growth in the first half of the year outpaced growth in retail sales, a rough proxy for consumption, by 7.4 percentage points, implying that the consumption share of GDP dropped quite sharply.

* The weak growth and deteriorating quality of growth were confirmed in the most recent data releases on debt and in the astonishing trade results.

* There has been expanding fallout from the crisis involving four rural banks in Henan that were unable to pay depositors. Although the numbers are small, they may yet tell us quite a lot about local finances.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.