Strong grain harvest prevents 3Q 2014 GDP from deep fall

UKRAINE - In Brief 31 Oct 2014 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
In 3Q 2014 Ukraine’s GDP performed much better than we expected. In particular, the State Statistics Service reported 5.1% y/y GDP decline last quarter (we estimated -11.2% y/y). For nine months GDP fell 3.8% y/y according to our estimates. Stronger agro-production performance (+23.9% y/y in 3Q 2014) was the main reason of such modest decline in the context of two digit industry contraction (-16.7% y/y). Effectively, this means that GDP decline in 2014 will be closer to -5% y/y rather than -10% y/y as it was already widely discussed. Disregard much better GDP performance we do not revise our GDP forecast so far (we estimated -7.4% for 2014). Very uncertain situation and volatile economy performance is the main reason for this. We hope nothing wrong happens over the next two months but we should keep in mind the permanent threat from the east which can break any positive trend any moment.

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