Stronger-than-expected 2021 industrial output growth is a good start for 2022

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 03 Feb 2022 by Alexander Kudrin

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The Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output increased by 5.3% in 2021, i.e., more than was expected earlier. On several occasions, it was mentioned in previous notes of this series that since mid-2020, every month, the Rosstat revises up previously published numbers. Generally, it is hard to predict how significant the revisions could be. For example, in the recent publication with December 2021 and full-year data, previously published November m-o-m growth in the manufacturing sector was upgraded from 0.8% to 1.7% (not seasonally adjusted). November statistics in the mining sector were also upwardly revised. Furthermore, it looks as though since 2020, the December statistics now incorporate all the unaccounted activities not recorded in the previous months. Usually, the m-o-m industrial growth in December (non-adjusted to seasonal and calendar factors) varied from 6.0% to 8.0%. In December 2020, the industry in total grew m-o-m by 14.2%. In December 2021, this figure was also higher than usual (12.5%). Hence more questions about the reliability of the officially published seasonally adjusted numbers.The mining in 2021 grew by 4.8% as in December, and 4Q21 y-o-y grow reached 10.0% and 10.5%. In 2021 extraction of natural gas increased by 10.6%, though LNG production was down. The latter is not surprising as Russia’s natural gas exports to its neighbors grew (including Europe). Extraction of oil and oil condensate increased by 2.1%.The manufacturing sector in total grew by 5.3% in 2021. In December and in 4Q21, growth reached 5.2% and 4.3% y-o-y. Within the manufacturing sector, growth was strong across all segments. The lowest growth was reported in metallurgy...