Summer offensive looms, on the heels of performative diplomacy

UKRAINE - Report 27 May 2025 by Vladimir Dubrovskiy and Dmytro Boyarchuk

U.S. President Donald Trump continues to consistently fail in delivering on his promise to end Russian aggression. His threats to increase pressure on the Kremlin are clearly not being taken seriously. Each time Trump makes a statement, Russia responds with defiance or escalated brutality—yet Trump merely mutters that he still believes Russian President Vladimir Putin wants peace. This pattern has become almost farcical, but for Ukraine, it is anything but amusing. The so-called “peace process” has turned into a political performance, buying time for the Kremlin, while leaving Ukraine exposed. Putin refuses to engage in serious negotiations, instead using these stalling tactics to regroup, and to prepare for a renewed offensive. With little meaningful response from the United States, it’s increasingly clear that Ukraine and its European allies are being left to confront Russian aggression on their own. We may see a few more spasms of this performative diplomacy, but they are unlikely to lead anywhere. A full-scale summer offensive now looks increasingly inevitable.

In a modest positive amid failed peace efforts, the United States and Ukraine formally signed an agreement for the United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Unlike earlier drafts, the final agreement drops references to Ukraine owing for past military aid, and affirms equal partnership—both wins for Kyiv. While it includes no security guarantees, future U.S. weapon supplies may count as Fund contributions, allowing Ukraine to access advanced arms even if U.S. engagement wanes. Still, the Fund is unlikely to become fully operational or yield real results soon, especially during the war.

Investor expectations that Ukraine will begin servicing GDP warrants are overly optimistic. Ukraine’s commissioner for public debt management Yuriy Butsa has already made it clear that Ukraine is ready to skip the June payment unless the GDP warrants are restructured. He’s not bluffing; he’s simply stating reality.

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