Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
OVERVIEW
The decline of Lula’s approval ratings, as indicated by various polling agencies in the past few weeks, has made his position in negotiations with Congress (where he has never had a majority) even more vulnerable. The bargaining is becoming more bitter, with additional pressures for budget allocations as October’s municipal elections approach. This dip in popularity has been surprising due to the backdrop of a strong labor market, with acceleration of wages in real terms, prompting the Central Bank to issue signals of caution about the pace and extent of the future reductions of interest rates.
COSTS AND CLEAVAGES ARE GROWING
At the outset of the fourth month of Lula’s third term, the price of absence of a coherent strategy by the government to face the current challenges is rising. The insistence on applying outmoded formulas, underpinned by a mixture of bewilderment and self-sufficiency, has been provoking increasing erosion in areas as diverse as the stock market, public safety and health, among others, undermining his popularity.
The results of the opinion surveys carried out in the second half of March by agencies such as Ipec, Atlas, Genial-Quaest and Data Folha have all indicated worsening opinions about Lula’s performance and increased disapproval ratings. In the case if the survey conducted by Atlas, Lula’s supporters were decidedly in the minority. In turn, the polling of Genial- Quaest indicated an approval rating of only 35%, down from 42% last August, while the disapproval rating now has risen from 24% to 34% in the same period. Finally, in the Data Folha survey, the sum of the respondents who rated the government’s performance as excellent or good was 35%, while those indicating poor or terrible amounted to 33% (a tie within the error margin).
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