Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Jul 2023 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Paula Magalhães and Diego Brandao

The ineligibility of Bolsonaro can soften the current political polarization if the other side of the political spectrum adopts a constructive stance. Much is in play in Congress, which has two weeks to reach decisions on important themes like the fiscal framework, tax reform and CARF rules, among others. The decision by the National Monetary Council (CMN) to maintain the inflation target within its current interval brought some relief regarding the continuing independence of the Central Bank.

BOLSONARO’S INELIGIBILITY

Bolsonaro has been ruled ineligible to run for office for the next eight years. His political rights have been maintained, i.e., he can take part in political events, but he cannot run for elective office. He was found guilty by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), by 5 votes to 2, for abuse of political power and improper use of official communication channels at a meeting with ambassadors on July 18, 2022, when he attacked, without evidence, the integrity of electronic voting machines. The use of his office to spread disinformation about the electronic voting system was characterized by the court as an attempt to delegitimize the electoral system and undermine democracy itself. He can appeal the decision to the TSE and then to the Supreme Court (STF), but the chances of success are remote. The same applies to an attempt to obtain amnesty from Congress. Other legal actions are ongoing, both in the electoral and criminal justice systems, indicating it will be very hard for the ex-president to free himself from the just deserts of his ceaseless affronts to democracy.

Without Bolsonaro in the dispute in 2026, hope is rising that a significant portion of his followers might be attracted to less reactionary candidates, identified with a civilized and democratic center-right agenda. At the moment, the names most often mentioned are four governors: Tarcisio de Freitas (SP); Romeu Zema (MG), and even Ratinho Junior (PR); and Ronaldo Caiado (GO).

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