Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Aug 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The month of August starts with the perspective that Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment will be approved by the Senate without surprises, ending Michel Temer’s interim status. This event is partly incorporated in the scenario used by the markets, and the expectation is that afterward the President will more boldly use his political capital to win approval of the reforms that are necessary for the economy to recover. Deviations from this route will tend to provoke severe punishments, with reflections in asset prices.

On the risk side, if the new batch of plea bargains reached with Marcelo Odebrecht et al. comes to pass, the list of politicians involved in illegal acts will increase, raising the temperature in the political arena.

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