Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
Four weeks after the runoff election, in the midst of serious uncertainties, some hints have emerged of what can be expected of the new government. An important one is that the PT has changed very little with the passage of time. Lula continues to centralize decisions in his hands, which deters the spontaneous rise of new leaders to rejuvenate the party and its proposals, and to enable the formation of a stable coalition government. The transition team, despite its size, is treading water in the absence of Lula, who was occupied with the country’s agenda abroad and recovery from health problems. This is not a promising picture.
Lula will take office at the ripe age of 77 and will face many challenges, both internal (polarized population still traumatized by the pandemic, an economy plagued by loss of dynamism, high inflation and public debt), and external (globally disseminated inflation, deceleration in China, outlook for recession, effects of the war in Ukraine). He will face a fierce opposition, and maintaining reasonable approval ratings will be a major hurdle. On the other hand, he will benefit from reversal of the disastrous policies on the environment in recent years, attracting welcome international support. The inflection of the policy on owning weapons, the return of resources for culture, research and university education, among others, should generate good will from relevant segments of civil society and the press, in counterpoint to the difficulties faced in the political and economic fields. This will help, but it will not be sufficient to assure success of the new government.
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