Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
Lula’s victory in the second round, with 50.9% of the valid votes, a difference of only 2.1 million votes, reveals a deeply divided nation. Lula won in the Northeast and Bolsonaro prevailed in the other four regions. The majority of governors elected or reelected come from the opposition, including those in the three most populous states: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. The outcome is a challenging scenario, which will tend to impose limits on Lula’s power.
Despite causing a good deal of perplexity, the deep divide resulting from the voting is partly a phenomenon provoked by the circumstances and strategies used in the campaigns. Fear of the adversary, aggravating voters’ polarization, was the main ingredient used by the candidates. There was little discussion of programs; instead there were strategies to increase division and hatred between the two “fan clubs”. It will be up to the new government and society at large to react and try to heal the wounds.
Only around half of voters were faithful at the extremes. The other half cannot be considered strong supporters of Bolsonaro or Lula. Many voted for Lula to save democracy, not because of support for his policy proposals. These were votes provoked more by the steady discourse of hate used by Bolsonaro during his presidency than due to the historic merits of Lula. Others voted for Bolsonaro and the candidates he endorsed due to strong rejection of the PT, as demonstrated by the victory of Tarcísio de Freitas in the gubernatorial race in São Paulo. Despite being a relatively unknown politician in the state, with a bureaucratic profile and little charisma, he prevailed in 88% of the state’s municipalities and garnered 55.3% of the valid votes. His victory can largely be explained by the huge rejection of the PT and his opponent, Fernando Haddad, former mayor of the city of São Paulo.
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