Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 07 Apr 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

NIETHER DILMA NOR TEMER... – Dilma Rousseff’s reaction to avoid impeachment continues to ignore the costs her strategy will impose on the country, be they political, institutional or economic. If she wins her “holy war” against impeachment, the government will be even feebler than at the start of the battle, with virtually no legitimacy, and supported by a congressional base of the worst type, built by Lula. For this achievement, her godfather would receive the laurels of victory, and it is not clear how power would be shared between the two. Those who expect Lula to pull off the miracle of restoring economic growth and attenuating the political crisis will be frustrated from the start, due to the gravity of the current economic and political situation. Solving these problems requires reforms and unity of forces, not tricks based on sowing discord. If Lula insists on assuming personal responsibility for governing, what remains of his image will suffer severe corrosion, and Dilma will be left with the burden of managing the chaos of a possible “day after”. The maintenance of the new political support base in congress, avid for rewards only possible through increased fiscal irresponsibility, is only one of the liabilities to be managed and would place a long-term burden on the entire population.

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